MRPL Stock Analysis 2025: A High-Reward Bet or Overvalued Trap? (Fundamental + Technical Deep Dive)

Is MRPL stock a buy in 2025? We analyze fundamentals, technicals, annual reports, and valuation to help you decide. Includes key ratios, charts, and investment strategy.


Introduction

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL) is a small-cap oil refining company that has seen wild swings in its stock price. After crashing from its 52-week high of ₹259.90, MRPL is now trading at ₹143.24 (as of 24 Mar 2025)—up 35% YTD but still 45% below its peak.

Key Questions We Answer:
✅ Is MRPL fundamentally strong? (Profitability, debt, growth)
✅ What do technical charts say? (RSI, volume trends, resistance levels)
✅ Should you buy, hold, or sell MRPL? (Investment strategy)

Let’s dive deep into the fundamentals, technicals, and annual trends to uncover the truth.


Section 1: Fundamental Analysis of MRPL (2025)

1.1 Business Overview

MetricValue
SectorCrude Oil & Refining
Market Cap₹25,132 Cr. (Small Cap)
Enterprise Value (EV)₹38,312 Cr. (Sept 2024)
Websitewww.mrpl.co.in

MRPL operates in a cyclical industry, heavily dependent on crude oil prices and refining margins.

1.2 Financial Health (Key Ratios)

RatioMRPL (2024)Industry AvgVerdict
P/E Ratio30.5021.66Overvalued
Debt-to-Equity0.941.50Low Debt
ROE (%)31.0818-22%Strong
Dividend Yield (%)2.09%1.5-2.5%Average

🔴 Problem: MRPL’s P/E of 30.5 is expensive compared to the industry (21.66).

1.3 Profitability Trends (Last 5 Years)

YearNet Profit (₹Cr.)EPS (₹)ROE (%)
2020-₹1,250 Cr.-19.14-49.58
2022₹1,137 Cr.16.8851.64
2024₹1,136 Cr.20.5231.08

📌 Key Takeaway: MRPL has recovered from losses but faces volatility due to oil price swings.

1.4 Quarterly Performance (2024)

QuarterNet Sales (₹Cr.)Net Profit (₹Cr.)EBITDA Margin (%)
Dec 202328,364387.064.09
Mar 202429,1901,136.847.98
Sep 202428,785-704.82-1.65

⚠️ Red Flag: Sep 2024 saw a loss due to negative EBITDA margins.


Section 2: Technical Analysis (March 2025)

2.1 Price & Volume Trends

IndicatorValueImplication
Current Price₹143.24 (▲35.4% YTD)Strong uptrend
52-Week Range₹98.92 – ₹259.90Mid-cycle
Delivered Qty (1M)2.22 Cr. (1.8x avg)Institutional buying
RSI (14-day)73.28 (Overbought)Pullback likely

2.2 Key Technical Signals

IndicatorStatusAction
Stochastic %K89.29 (Overbought)Sell
Weekly SuperTrend₹149.64 (Resistance)Sell Zone
Relative StrengthImproving vs. Nifty EnergyNeutral

📉 Short-Term Outlook: Overbought signals suggest a correction towards ₹130-135.


Section 3: Annual Report & Growth Projections

3.1 5-Year Growth Trends

Metric20202024CAGR
Net Sales₹20,832 Cr.₹29,190 Cr.8.8%
Net Profit-₹1,250 Cr.₹1,136 Cr.Recovery
EPS-19.1420.52Strong rebound

3.2 Future Risks & Opportunities

✅ Opportunities:

  • Government support in oil refining sector.
  • Debt reduction (D/E improved from 2.91 to 0.94).

❌ Risks:

  • Crude oil volatility impacts margins.
  • Overvaluation (P/E 30.5 vs. Industry 21.66).

Section 4: Should You Buy MRPL Stock? (Investment Strategy)

4.1 For Traders (Short-Term)

  • Entry Point: Wait for RSI to cool below 60 (~₹130-135).
  • Exit Point: ₹149-150 (SuperTrend resistance).

4.2 For Investors (Long-Term)

  • Buy on Dips: Accumulate below ₹120 if oil stabilizes.
  • Hold Period: 2-3 years for refining cycle upside.

4.3 Final Verdict

AspectRating (1-5)Remarks
Fundamentals⭐⭐⭐☆ (3.5/5)Decent but cyclical
Technicals⭐⭐⭐☆ (3.5/5)Overbought near-term
Valuation⭐⭐☆☆ (2.5/5)Expensive P/E

Conclusion: MRPL is a high-risk, high-reward bet—best suited for traders and patient investors.


FAQ

❓ Is MRPL a good long-term investment?

  • Only if you can handle volatility. The refining sector is cyclical.

❓ What’s the target price for MRPL?

  • Short-term: ₹150 (resistance).
  • Long-term: ₹200+ if margins improve.

❓ Does MRPL pay dividends?

  • Yes, 2.09% yield (₹2.99/share in 2024).

Final Word: MRPL is not for the faint-hearted. Trade carefully or accumulate on dips for long-term gains.

📊 Want More Stock Analysis? Subscribe for weekly insights! 🚀

Related posts

Reliance Industries Shocks the Market! 280 Million Subscribers, ₹10 Lakh Cr Revenue, and Record-Breaking IPL—What It Means for Investors in FY2025

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Read More